Trying to kill the Truth.

This brilliant graph by Nicki Draper shows what the killing rate for journalists in Gaza actually is. The initial graph is bad enough, but adjusted for time it shows that this is not an average loss of life in a risky job. Does anyone really think that this can be anything other than a deliberate policy, to kill the eyes and ears, stifle the witnesses, carry on the genocide in silence and darkness?

The scale of the killing of journalists by Israeli forces in Gaza has been so great that their colleagues in Western media can’t avert their eyes anymore.

Though the framing is still often grotesque. Jonathan Crook’s question How is it possible for a BBC reporter to have made the following obscene observation in his segment on Israel’s murder at the weekend of Al-Jazeera journalist Anas al-Sharif: “There’s the question of proportionality. Is it justified to kill five journalists when you were only targeting one?” goes to the heart of the racist double standards applied by the Western media to their own colleagues in Gaza. How much collateral damage is OK?

As Cook points out, if studio with Jeremy Bowen, Lyse Doucet, Yollande Knell, Lucy Williamson and Jon Donnison was been hit by an Israeli strike, and all five killed: would any BBC reporter ask “There’s the question of proportionality. Is it justified to kill five journalists when you were only targeting one?”

The reporter’s question is also absurd. The IDF does not target individual journalists. It targets journalists. No one from outside is allowed in. Anyone on the inside has a target on them.

They do not want the facts getting out. They would prefer it if everyone went about their lives in an innocent bubble, untroubled by disturbing images and news.

But we see them. We know. The bloody tooth paste is out of the tube and you will never get it back in. We will tell others. We will mobilise. This will end.

Chagos : picking up the tab for the USA.

The headline in Monday’s Daily Telegraph was Starmer hid costs of Chagos surrender, with the strapline Official figures reveal total cost is ten times higher than the Prime Minister claimed.

Even in the Telegraph, which could have most of its headlines summarised in an emotional digested read as HRUMPH! this is almost poetic. A veritable broadside of misdirected kneekjerk reactions.

Lets start with Chagos surrender. What they mean by this is the return of the Indian Island archipeligo of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. For Telegraph readers it is a no brainer that an island in the middle of the Indian Ocean is more appropriately administered by the remnants of the Colonial Office in London than another island nearby, let alone, perish the thought, the people who actually live there; because where once a British colonist has stood, the Union Jack should fly forever.

Surrender implies some shame, as the emotional freight of all those retreats from direct imperial control all through the 20th century gets concentrated on this tiny island far, far away; of which their readers know very little.

The notion of the cost of handing back the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is suspicious. Why would it cost anything to relinquish control? It sounds like reparations – the horrifying notion that countries that got rich from exploiting the resources of countries they conquered, keeping them in poverty for the duration, might actually owe them something. Hrumph, indeed! Can’t have THAT!

But as there is no cost to let go of Chagos, what is the cost actually for? Read the article and it admits that the cost is not for giving bup the island, but for leasing back the airbase that Britain expelled the Chagos islanders to build in the 1960s. This base, formally British, is actually used by the United States as a strategic centre for B2 bombers to range across Africa, West, Central and South and South East Asia, China and the Pacific.

Like the agreement to a 5% target for “defence” spending and the meek acceptance of Trump’s tariffs, any contribution to the costs to Britain of keeping this base going – this “terrible deal with huge costs to hard pressed British tax payers”, as Dame Priti Patel put it – is a financial tribute to the United States, so they can bomb half the world with impunity.

Any resentment at this should therefore be directed across the Atlantic, not at Mauritius. But that would involve 1. being honest and 2. punching up.

Their argument that these costs have been misleadingly reported is itself misleading. They argue that methods often used by the Treasury on long term costs to take account of inflation and the “Social Time Preference rate” is an “accountancy trick”. Not an argument they deploy in other contexts.

They then go on to say that the “nominal” cost £34.7 billion over 99 years would be equivalent “half the annual schools budget”. So, a salutory comparison of wasteful military costs with costs of schooling, unusual in the Telegraph, and only made because they have painted the price of subsiding as US air base as an act of reparation, but still comparing an annual cost (in the case of schools) with a cost spread over 99 years – so, not a strictly reasonable comparison.

They are operating more to type when they say that the cost of leaing the base is also equivalent to building “10 Elizabeth class aircraft carriers”; conjuring up a real wet dream of military nostalgia for all those retired Commodores who write them letters; for the days when the Royal Navy had mighty ships of the line and Scapa Flow was full of battleships; instead of being, as it is, a tiny, niche auxiliary force for the US Navy. Oddly enough, playing the same sort of subordinate role as the Air Force does for the Chagos Island base (and other bases here too).

The Wingco at “RAF” Burtonwood.

I had direct experience of the fiction involved in this in the mid 1980s, when a delegation from Greater Manchester CND travelled down to the Burtonwood Air Base to hand in a letter to the base commander pointing out that any nuclear weapons stored there would put the population of Manchester, and the whole North West, at serious risk.

When we asked to see the base commander, a Royal Air Force Wingco came out. He looked a bit like Kenneth Moore, which I don’t suppose damaged his job application any. Everyone else in view was in US uniforms. When we said we wanted to see the actual base commander, he said “I’m the base commander. Its an RAF base”.

So we said, “Really, whats THAT?” pointing to the enormous stars and stripes fluttering on the flag pole behind him.

Writing off the Working Class in Education?

How the framing of the debate changes!

Time was that relative educational underachievement of global majority children in English schools was put down to ethnicity. Exam results “proved” that these kids were inherently less able than their white peers. Books were written. Media talking heads nodded sagely, “the figures don’t lie”. The shadow of racial status from Empire still loomed across the later 20th Century.

A variation on this was a big scare in the 1980s, that, if there were too many of them, children for whom English was an additional language would inevitably hold back the progress of their classmates for whom it was their only language. A Head teacher from Bradford called Ray Honeyford made a big fuss on these lines and was given credence by TV News, and then platformed as their go to talking head on every other educational issue – on the same lines as Katherine Birbalsingh is today because, after all, Head teachers are all the same.

So, why would you want to talk to more than one?

This argument has disappeared since. In my experience over thirty years of teaching, a child fluent in another language would rapidly pick up English. Even the least fluent picked up F*** off! within a week of playtime. Needs must. Problems with an academic curriculum would come in if the child’s home language, whatever it was, was underdeveloped. Often, a bilingual child would have access to two blunt linguistic instruments. A child with English as a sole language, would have one. The solution for this was innovative, language rich, experiential learning, with lots of practical activity and talk. This benefitted all the students, however many languages they spoke at home. As the phrase went “good English as an Additional Language practice, is good practice”.

But now that some white pupils are doing worse “even than Afro Caribbean students” as one Radio 4 commentator put it yesterday, the clutching at pearls almost audible – “Daphne! The smelling salts!” – this is no longer put down to ethnic inadequacy on the part of the failing students, because the shadow of racial status from Empire still casts its darkness; it must be about something else.

If this were about material factors holding back all working class children, that would represent progress. However, the framing once again emphasises the ethnic aspect of this, and in a way that does not recognise that, in addition to all the other factors that hold back working class kids, global majority kids have to deal with racism as well.

The implication of the media narrative now, is that this has been turned on its head, so global majority students must be being unfairly favoured in some way. A favourite target is any attempt to learn in a curriculum that does not reinforce racist narratives. This is absolutely overt in the United States, with inclusive curriculla scrapped and books banned; so our derivative Right will want to echo that to show how patriotically subservient they are to the Big White Chief in Washington. If you’ve had privilege for long enough, equality always looks like a threat.

So, their line is that any effort to allow global majority children to see themselves in the curricullum, or for History in particular to be decolonised, is an attempt to “make white children feel bad about themselves”. Which is odd, because you’d only feel bad about, say, the slave trade, if you identify with the slave traders, not the slaves, out of misplaced ethnic solidarity.

When people like Michael Gove talked about being “proud of our History”, that white solidarity cutting across class and stretching back through time, is what he wanted to reinforce. Let the statues of the slave traders (Colston) and imperial buccaneers (Rhodes, Clive) stand forever for us to look up to, holding us in our place like so many bronze paper weights.

There is a massive difference between wanting to “erase History” and wanting to hold it up to the light. For Gove and his ilk, the point of national history teaching is to provide a national narrative based on the fond delusion that “we” were always the good guys, so anything we do now must be ok. Its that that erases history and makes understanding it impossible. All so we can watch our armed forces bomb and occupy other people’s countries and still feel good about ourselves; and definitely not resist it. While it is often said that “those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it” it is equally true that “those who prevent history being fully taught intend to repeat it”.

An article in the Daily Telegraph – White working class pupils are being written off says Philipson (11/8/25) demonstrates rather well how this is now being framed. In a paper that argues on the same day that too many students are going to University; too many of the wrong sort of students, you know, the sort that should be learning practical skills that can then be hired by the people who do, and whose families always have; they approvingly quote Education Secretary Bridget Philipson as saying that “it is a “national disgrace that so many young people are written off and don’t get what they need to achieve and thrive. Far too many young people, particularly white working class British (sic) students, don’t get the results they need at GCSE or A Level to allow them to continue to University.” I emphasised British there, partly for its redundancy, but also for the implied “us and them” dog whistle. What are the other students then? Not British? A foreshadowing of “remigration”?

The paradox of the Telegraph’s line lies in the conflict between thinking that working class kids shouldn’t really be going to University, should know their place and stay in it, with the racist indignation that if global majority kids are doing better than any white kids, this is an outrage that cannot stand.

Not that they have any concrete proposals to deal with it. Least of all addressing structural issues that put so many children below the poverty line, 2 child benefit cap perhaps, or investing more into schools – both in resources and educational input – in the most deprived areas. This approach worked very well in London with the London Challenge between 2003 and 2011, which saw Inner London’s exam results going from bottom to top in eight years.

This is relevant because demographic divergence means that economically declining poorer towns, sometimes, but not always on the coast, or in former industrial areas where the industry has died – places young people with hope and educational motivation move away from not into – often retain a proportionately high white working class population. Some of them, to be fair, have moved there from cities because of that, hitching up their ox wagons and making the great trek from London (with no ethnic majority) to, say, Clacton (95.3% white). The paradox of this is that areas with a healthy ethnic mix tend to have schools with higher results, but also higher results among all ethnic groups, so they are running away from better prospects for their kids.

The last Conservative government tried to deal with this by changing the funding formula so that the existing education budget was redistributed. This would have raised spending outside of cities at the expense of running down spending in them. The obvious problem with this is that an improvement does not sustain itself on inertia. The level of investment needed last year will still be needed this year just to stand still. Cut it away, and it all goes backwards.

So, if they were serious about addressing this, there would need to be a London Challenge type intervention – preferably less top down and more engaging with educators – in all deprived areas.

But that takes resources.

And you can’t have that if you need every penny for the Ministry of Defence. Far better to let things languish so that angry and alienated people are pointed towards Reform not a solution.

Here’s how they frame it “Labour is facing pressure to address issues facing white working class Britons amid the growing threat from Reform”. In this framing dividing and ruling the working class is the foundation of the narrative. Solutions that benefit all working class kids don’t get a look in. Instead we have Angela Rayner quoted citing “high levels of immigration” as “threatening social cohesion among Britain’s poorest communities” in a way that “risks fresh disorder”.

So, the issue is not the lack of investment in schools, because little will be on offer; “immigration” is posed as the problem. The problem for Labour is that chasing Reform votes by parroting their poisonous themes instead of genuinely addressing the issues and putting the resources in, will compound and exacerbate exactly the problems she says she fears.

Because, when they talk about “white working class” the active part of the formula is “white”. The last thing they want is any pride in being working class (unless that is clearly defined in the sort of plucky subordinate role – like the way working class characters provided the light relief in Brief Encounter – in which we know our place).

Better demoralisation than class solidarity. And demoralisation of the sort that leads to about double the number of kids now often missing school days than before the pandemic can only be addressed with hope. Of the sort that is now denied by the society we have. Hope of a job. A worthwhile job preferably. Somewhere affordable to live. Preferably decent in a healthy, culturally lively green community. A future not threatened by war or climate breakdown, and education that does not act as an enabler to the first and dampen down serious mobilisation to stop the latter.

Above all, an education that offers working class kids self respect, as unique individuals, but as part of the class that, as Bernadette McAliskey put it on a Bloody Sunday Commemoration Rally on a frozen Sunday in Kilburn forty years back “you built this country…every last stick of it!”

Can’t have kids being aware of that. They might want to build it better.

Armageddon in Gaza

“And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?” W B Yeats

The decision by the Israeli war cabinet to try to fully occupy Gaza to “eliminate Hamas” will kill many, many more people, with intensified military action adding even more to the steadily mounting total of people being starved to death; and, as a side effect that Netanyahu is well aware of, ensure the deaths of all the remaining hostages. As the Duke of Warwick says in Shaw’s St Joan; “It was nothing personal. Your death was a political necessity”.

The reported stand up row with IDF commanders, and the letters from thousands of reservists and nearly 600 retired Israeli security officials and former intelligence agency heads who see no achievable military objective, also reflects the strain that the war so far has placed on the IDF itself and Israeli society more broadly.

Their casualties are tiny by comparison with those suffered by the Palestinians in Gaza of course. The 60,199 fatalities for which the Gaza Health Ministry has records are generally accepted to be a serious underestimate.

There is no doubt that, unless a change of course is forced, there will be many more dying very soon. 12,000 children under five alone are reported as suffering from acute malnutrition in July; and this number is growing as the trickle of food aid forced in by international pressure and condemnation is spread thinner and thinner as time drags on.

Nevertheless, the impact of the war on the IDF is far from negligable, and this will accelerate once they move into the quagmire of Gaza City.

So far, they have lost 454 fatalities and 2,870 injured in the 22 months since October 7th.

To think of that in UK terms, with a population almost ten times bigger – that would be 4,358 dead and 27,552 injured.

To put that into perspective, 179 UK soldiers were killed in Iraq, and 457 in Afghanistan (the latter over nearly 20 years); roughly a tenth as much at a much slower rate. It led to quite a strong sentiment against overseas interventions, even with a proffessional armed forces, that is still a factor to be taken into account.

In US terms, with a population 48 times bigger, that would be 21,798 soldiers killed and 136,320 injured. To put that in perspective, that would be at a rate almost twice as fast as the 58, 281 soldiers the US lost in their nine year invasion of Vietnam.

The Vietnam comparison is instructive, because the US and its allies killed over a million Vietnamese. And they were still defeated, partly because the scale of their murderousness became globally apparent, its inability to stop the Vietnamese became apparent with it, the morale of their conscripted soldiers was crumbling, and draft resistance fuelled a counter culture that was letting all sorts of dangerous ideas loose; so they had to cut their losses and bide their time.

What we are seeing in Gaza is a level of barbarism even more concentrated than when B52s were carpet bombing Vietnamese cities and dropping Agent Orange all over the countryside. The Gaza City invasion will make this much worse.

However, Israel is more capable of sustaining this than the US, even with conscripts, because the war is right in their faces, not in “a land far away”, a high proportion of their population are settlers on a mission to drive Palestinians out, and most see the conflict as zero sum communalism, “us or them”; which has a genocidal dynamic.

Nevertheless, the strains are real. Up to the end of 2024, 672,000 people, mostly young and educated, had left the country. Thats almost 10% of the population. This is paralelled by a 10% hit on its economy, which any Gaza City invasion will compound.

The question now is how bad things have to get before Netanyahu runs out of road, or their society cracks, or the US makes the calculation that the damage to its own global standing from underwriting all this is worse than the salutory effect of the apocalyptic warning it gives to the whole global South of what could happen to you if you step out of line, and pulls the plug. Which it could have done at any point since this began, It hasn’t.

When Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian has (almost) given up on apologetics and even Tim Stanley can write in the Daily Telegraph that “its now impossible to ignore the nevidence of human suffering (try as you have, Tim) or the sham of the official Israeli narrative that says no one is starving or, if they are, its because Hamas stole all the food“; the tectonic plates have already shifted and Netanyahu is standing on thinner and thinner ice, and every bomb he drops cracks it more.

In the period ahead, we will have to mobilise more and more against this, and break the complicity of our government in it.

Previous

This morning, instead of the Guardian flopping onto the doormat at 4 in the morning, the great, grey, grim, gruesome masthead of the Daily Telegraph was visible poking through the letterbox like an ultimatum in Gothic.

The Telegraph is a gloriously reactionary paper, whose columnists barrage its readers with nerve edgy variations on the theme of “we’ll all be murdered in our beds” to keep them scared and angry, and its news sections are barely calmer. It was ever thus. When I worked permanent nights in a choclate factory many years ago, I used to read the Telegraph to keep me awake; because a mind that is boggling finds it hard to drift off.

A characteristic article this morning headlined Hunter gored to death by buffalo he was stalking explains how “a millionaire trophy hunter…was killed almost instantly by ‘a sudden and unprovoked attack’ by the animal”.

They write this with no sense of irony; after all, all he was doing was stalking it to shoot it. The natural order of things. No provocation at all. There’s a whole world view in that.

Doing its bit to calm down tensions over “migrant hotels”, their lead article on p4 is headed Migrants in hotels linked to hundreds of crimes, with the strapline, in case anyone misses the point, Residents have been charged with violence, child abuse,domestic assault and shoplifting and a little highlighted indent gives the figure 425 for the “number of offences people living in hotels the Home Office use to house migrants have been charged with”.

Many of their readers, happy to have their prejudices confirmed, that “they” are a threat to “us”; and that this is a characteristic that can be freely atributed to all “migrants”, will read no further. But the tortuous use of language in the headlines, for anyone paying attention, is explained by sentences buried deep in the story, but which explode it from the inside out, again, for anyone paying attention.

First, these are figures for people charged, not people convicted. So, this will be the highest possible number.

Second, Not every defendent who lists one of these hotels as their place of residence is necessarily an asylum seeker. It has not been possible to establish how many of the offenders identified by the Telegraph are currently applying for asylum in the UK”. So the highlighted number is bollocks. They know it. But they print it anyway.

Third, “The court records show that a significant proportion of these offences are alleged to have been perpetrated against other apparent asylum seekers”. Its notable that they don’t specify a figure, or proportion for this, though doubtless they could. Possibly because it draws the sting from the implication that “they” are a threat to “us”.

Showing the same inversion of reality that they deploy in the Big Game Hunter vs Buffalo story, they state “…police are under pressure to routinely disclose the nationality and migration status of suspects to protect community cohesion and to address a perception among some groups that asylum seekers are carrying out a disproportionate number of offences”. Note the unspecified character of “some groups”. Who might they be, I wonder?

Perish the thought that papers like the Telegraph, in its own revealing words, offering “a sense of the numbers involved”, and doing so by playing them up, could be promoting that “perception among certain groups” the better to whip them up, while retaining implausible deniability with weasel words.

On this issue, as on so many others, like so many of those arrested in the racist riots last summer, the Telegraph definitely has previous.

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Another Ukraine is impossible – without a defeat for NATO and the Oligarchy; update – Ukrainian support for war sinks even lower…

It is all too often a characteristic of movements without power to seek consolation in fantasies – and delusions of granduer.

The Plan for “Another Ukraine” from Ukraine Solidarity Campaign, and endorsed by John McDonnell and others rests on gigantic contradictions.

Graph from Ukrainian support for war effort collapses, which continues

More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory has hit a new low. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.

This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.

  • With a majority of Ukrainians now wanting peace,
  • and recognising that reconquest of Russian speaking territory in the East and Crimea is not realistic, even if they wish it were,
  • and driving the war on and on is now dependent on increasingly aggressive and deeply unpopular press ganging,
  • as soldiers from the front desert in increasing numbers

USC nevertheless continues to play its role of covering NATO’s control of Western Ukraine with a series of progressive sounding fig leaves.

On the one hand they call for “trade unions and civil society” to bloc with the British, European “and allied” imperial states to carry on cheerleading for the war, on the other they call for outcomes which cannot possibly be achieved through working class subordination to such a bloc.

  • The chance of a Ukrainian reconstruction under the aegis of Western powers that does not leave Ukraine’s natural resources exploited “by Western corporations and oligarchs” is nil. The existing reconstruction plan, agreed by the Ukrainian government and the West in 2022 hands the job over to Blackrock. This simply cements the process of privatisation of land and assets that accelerated sharply after 2014, and is partly what Western intervention in Ukraine is FOR.
  • Likewise, what level of fantasy do you have to be capable of to imagine that any reconstruction deal in Ukraine, run by its current Oligarchy in subordination to the EU and US, would “empower Ukrainian trade unions and civil society” or “withdraw the proposed Labour Code that restricts workers’ rights and unions”? Thats the last kind of deal they’d even consider, unless they are defeated. The authors of this “plan” must be aware of that, but they put it up all the same.

To achieve either of these aims would require the defeat or overthrow of the Ukrainian oligarchy. Or sufficient pressure on it by a mobilised working class in western Ukraine, with international support in the context of a defeat, that would force it to make concessions. This is not possible if sections of the Left in Ukraine, and internationally, continue to subordinate the working class to backing the war effort in a framework of a national unity that lionises Fascists like Stepan Bandera, denies self determination to the large Russian speaking minority, and seeks to “Ukrainise” the others. When the resistence to conscription becomes a movement for peace, on this “plan”, USC will oppose it.

Trying to mobilise support for increased weapons flows, and the (unspecified but enormous) finance required, means an attack on working class living standards across Europe. Do John McDonnell, or any of the other signatories, imagine that European imperialist governments are going to put the costs of this war onto the backs of the class whose interests it serves? And, if we did have governments committed to massive wealth redistribution in the imperial heartlands, would they also not be looking for a peaceful modus vivendi with the Russians, and others?

This line of thinking becomes positively farcical when they state that we have to “Recognise Trump’s alignment with Putin”. Really? Now?

This line was a convenient one for the European ruling classes, who have used it to mobilise support for exactly what Trump wants, a doubling of European “defence” expenditure, when they already outspend the Russian by 3.5 to 1, during the period when Trump was trying to woo the Russians away from their international bloc with China – the better to pick them both off later. This has been characterised as a “reverse Nixon” or “reverse Kissinger”; which underlines one reason it hasn’t worked. The Russians have a bitter experience of how that worked out for them last time.

Commentators from Timothy Garton Ash to George Monbiot talked this up a storm while they could; and its possible they believed in it. Its a bit more difficult to sustain now that Trump is shooting his mouth off about apocalyptic sanctions on countries that continue to trade with the Russians and deploying nuclear armed submarines “close” to Russia as an explicit warning. And, after a brief revival during the Alaska talks Trump is now making statements like this.

“It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia”.

“Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out? Regardless, this is a war that would have NEVER happened if I were President – ZERO CHANCE. Interesting times ahead!!!”

Making Trump’s “betrayal” of Ukraine, as if it was ever anything other than a poisoned pawn for US interests, a major plank in mobilising opposition to his state visit in September now looks absurd as well as self defeating. Getting angry that the core of global imperialism is not being aggressive enough in one of its proxy wars, is a self destructive emotion. What do they want him to do, send more nuclear subs?

Now he knows that his wooing attempt on the Russians has failed, Trump is trying to cut his losses. If he goes for a deal at the Alaska talks, this will be to try to freeze the conflict more or less as it is, so that the current inexorable Russian advances are stopped before the Ukrainian Armed Forces collapse like the South Vietnamese Army did in 1975 – putting the asset stripping deal he has already made with Kyiv at risk. This is not inevitable, but tipping points do get reached. Either way, even if he doesn’t, he has already outsourced the resourcing of the war to Europe. So, if the war continues, Ukrainians will fight and die, US arms firms will profit, and the European working class will pay for it.

This is not in our interests.

The last, and probably most important, point is what they mean by a “just peace”. It seems an a priori position on their part is that a “just peace” is one that does not take any Russian concerns into account; a Western imposed one.

In my last blog on this issue I asked USC supporters three questions about the initial Russian proposals to settle the conflict in Ukraine without a war in 2021. These were;

  1. No further NATO expansion
  2. No forward deployment of US forces or weapons into Eastern Europe
  3. A ban on Intermediate Range Missiles
  4. A limit on military manouvres and activities
  5. Limits on nuclear weapons
  6. A Mutual Security Pledge
  7. Establishment of Consultation Mechanisms
  8. An Indivisibilty of Security Principle.

These seem to me to be to be the basis of a just peace, not simply for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole. The questions for USC supporters are

  • which of of these proposals do you disagree with?
  • Would an agreement on these lines be a viable way to end the war?
  • Would an agreement on these lines have avoided it in the first place?

I have had no answers. The silence is deafening.

As it is impossible at this point in the war for the West to impose a peace on its terms, the USC “plan” is nothing more than the subaltern Left playing its part in NATOs current attempt to spin the war out in the hope that something will turn up, while it retools its military industrial complex enough to intervene more directly by the end of the decade.

This would, of course, be a suicidal course of action that will be averted by resistance to rearmament and a NATO defeat in Ukraine; at which point “another Ukraine” becomes impossible to avoid.

Ursula Von der Liar

When Ursula Von der Leyen sealed the EU’s abject capitulation to Donald Trump, adding to the Euro NATO pledge for 5% of GDP to be spent on “defence” by the end of the decade and doing a “deal” for a lower tariff than Trump had originally threatened with no reciprocal obligations on the part of the US; she copper bottomed it with a pledge to import $750 billion worth of US fossil fuels in coming years.

This is a core part of Trump’s attempt to dig in on the fuels of the past – he has to bully his subordinate allies into buying the stuff, even if its not in their economic interests to do so; and they will struggle to find a use for it. As long as they cough up, that’s not his concern.

Von der Leyen, in the process, seems to have caught Trump’s habit of telling giant lies with breezy self confidence. She repeated her comment from December last year that US LNG is cheaper than Russian natural gas. “We still get a lot of LNG (liquefied natural gas) through Russia, from Russia. Why not replace it with U.S. gas, which is cheaper for us and reduces our gas prices?” she said at the time.

This is not simply untrue, it is the OPPOSITE of the truth. Ask any German consumer or business. At the end of last year Germans were paying 74% more per unit of gas than they were before the sanctions imposed on Russia and the blowing up of the Nordstream pipeline.

Possibly more disturbing than the lying, is the way that these comments are reported without being debunked, as are Trump’s continuous assertions that wind is “the most expensive form of energy”, when it is one of the cheapest, which is why it is growing so fast.

We should also note that US LNG has a carbon footprint 33% worse than coal.

Dancing in the Haunted Darkness – Moments of Reprieve

When I was an over serious teenager in the early 1970s, making myself very unpopular by putting a CND poster showing a mushroom cloud erupting out of a skull in a 6th Form Common Room full of people who just wanted to listen to Led Zeppelin and have a good time, I developed a philosophy of life that decreed that, in the face of global hunger, the threat of nuclear war and the destruction of the natural world it was immoral to enjoy it.

At the time, this was described as a “denial of life” by some of my closest friends and partners. But it seemed to me that a sense of guilt was a motivator, that the resolution of inhuman acts was a precondition for any happiness that could be justified; without reflecting that moments of joy don’t have to be justified; and a capacity to carry on wouldn’t be possible without them.

I expect I am not alone in getting vicarious imaginary montages, seeing horrific scenes from the news projected onto everyday landscapes. The first time J and I went into central London after the IDF started its mass bombing campaign in Gaza, we talked about how fragile the buildings in Leicester Square now seemed, how easily they could be shattered. Going to Basildon Hospital for my Mum’s most recent appointment we passed the three tower blocks that mark the northern edge of Chadwell and dominate the surrounding countryside, and I couldn’t help thinking that in Ukraine they would be a heavily shelled command post, a fortress in a waste land. While the hospital, so calm, friendly and orderly, humming along so functionally with its shops and cafe and pharmacy, would be a smoking hulk with desperate hungry staff trying to treat patients in the ruins with no anaesthetic, little or no medicine and no beds were it in Gaza. These are virtual, vicarious flash backs, not part of lived experience with no smells, little sound, just images, like a ghostly son et lumiere in the mind, but becoming an everyday part of psychic life.

In this context, when S and I were an hour early to the pots and pans protest for Gaza outside Downing Street last night, we took our sandwiches and sat under the shade of the plane trees in St James Park to catch a breath. We watched the geese and herons, moor hens and ducks like we had when she was little; the children eating ice creams in the sunlight.

On one level, given what we were there for, it seemed almost obscene to be enjoying this, the peace of it; even eating while 2 million people are being deliberately starved, but on another level it was an act of defiance. Finding moments of peace, moments of joy, moments of human kindness or wonder is a reprieve when under unendurable attack. When not under such attack, but aware of it, it becomes almost a duty to experience as much of our humanity as we can in the face of such strenuous efforts to degrade and dehumanise.

On the way out of the park we came across a Mum in a bright hijab and her daughter feeding a parakeet with an apple and half a strawberry. Parakeets are always exhilarating. This one kept fluttering down from rustling about in the tree above with the rest of its loudly chattering squadron, stretching out its neck and its bright red beak, then flinching back as it got too close. The little girls eyes were wide and bright with wonder.

In Moments of Reprieve, Primo Levi is making an argument for finding any human salvage you can in the most inhumne possible conditions, writing a set of short stories as an elegy to prisoners in Auschwitz, who through tiny affirmations of their humanity – a juggling trick, finding a slice of apple – discover ‘bizarre, marginal moments of reprieve’ amidst the horror.

In a discussion of the finale of Beethoven’s 7th Symphony on Radio 3 this morning, Tom Service argued that the ending of the movement is “off the wall”, because Beethoven has the double basses at the bottom of the register accompanied by the rest of the strings in a grinding and remorseless grim cycle of a theme in a lower key than the rest of the orchestra, which is hurtling around in a whirlwind of a joyful dance that ends in a blazing triumph; and the one is the condition for the other.

The conductor Charles Hazelwood, who was abused as a child, has said that “when I conduct Beethoven I feel the abuse in every bar”, because Beethoven’s Dad punched lumps out of him as a child, and as a result “It’s horribly uncomfortable for me to work with, right until the final performance which is always pure ecstasy”. Even when that mournful, somewhat depressive teenager, Beethoven always did that for me too, because his music absorbs the horror and misery and is driven by it to triumph over it.

As we must now.

The Power of Percussion

At the pots and pans protest at our government’s complicity in the attempted starvation of 2 million Gaza Palestinians in Whitehall this evening, I was attempting to beat out the rhythm of the Nibelungs in Wagner’s Rheingold – old moles hammering away in their mines – with a saucepan and wooden spoon. This was an effort to create an air of collective subteranean proletarian menace. Needless to say, loud though it was, it did not catch on.

The cacophony of thousands beating pans with spoons nevertheless settled into a series of steady rhythms, sometimes echoing chants, sometimes settling into that most basic one, two, one two that is like marching feet and a heartbeat at the same time.

A kippah and a Keffiyah side by side against genocide.

The power of the percussion made me think of the scene in the Tin Drum in which Oscar subverts a Nazi Rally by beating a different rhythm under the grandstand, throwing the Nazi band off its stroke so its loses its bombastic march and only recovers by finding a waltz rhythm, leading the rally to dissolve as the rigid ranks melt into whirling dancers. A scene that shows the potential of people and nations to shift, affirm hope and life and fluidity over rigidity, conformity and racist militarism; and affirming that though Germany produced Hitler and Himmler and Heydrich, it also produced Beethoven and Schiller and Schubert.

In a way, when the Left is campaigning properly, it is attempting to do what Oscar does in this scene.

On the train on the way home there was that announcement; “if you see anything that doesn’t look right”…I see an awful lot of things, on the News mostly, but reporting them to the British Transport Police wouldn’t do a lot of good, sadly.

I don’t think they had many takers.

Russia’s “Maximalist demands”? Three questions for supporters of the Ukraine Solidarity Campaign.

In his February article, Ukraine’s defeat and the fall of the West, Owen Jones argued that “if we were always going to end up at a point where Russia was going to take land, and Western leaders thought that, but claimed otherwise and made promises to Ukraine to keep the war going to achieving what they believed to be unachievable – well, what that means in terms of countless wasted lives is truly hideous“; noting that this has been in pursuit of what the Washington Post described as “a sensible, cold-blooded strategy for the United States — to attrit an adversary at low cost to America, while Ukraine was paying the butcher’s bill”.

We are now getting to that point.

The way the war ends, or is spun out, is of enormous consequence to whether Europe will remain locked in an escalatory spiral towards the fever dream of a further, wider, deeper – and suicidal – pan European war that infects the minds of General Staffs and newspaper editorial boards; or whether there is an attempt to find a sustainable modus vivendi with Russia that enables de escalation, avoids mutually assured destruction and dislocates Europe from the US imperative to shore up its slipping global dominance with ever more adventurist wars.

The media here reflexively dismisses Russia’s bottom lines for ending the war as “maximalist”; by definition unreasonable, to be dismissed with no further thought or examination. This is of a piece with their usual tactic of obscuring reality with adjectival clouds of emotive association, so it is vital for even those sections of the Left that have cheered on the war, and are still doing it even as a majority of Ukrianians want peace, to get beyond the emotional red mists and look seriously at what the Russians are actually proposing.

A majority of Ukrainains want peace.

These are the key points from the published text of the draft “Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees” that Russia presented to Biden in December 2021; and which the US/NATO dismissed out of hand and refused to discuss.

  1. No further NATO expansion
  • The US would commit to preventing further enlargement of NATO, specifically barring Ukraine and other former Soviet republics from joining the alliance.
  • This also included a ban on NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.

2. No Deployment of US Forces or Weapons in Certain Countries

  • The treaty would forbid the US from deploying military forces or weaponry in countries that joined NATO after May 1997 (such as Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, and others).
  • NATO infrastructure would have to be rolled back to pre-1997 locations.

3 Ban on Intermediate-Range Missiles

  • Both Russia and the US would be prohibited from deploying ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside their national territories, as well as in areas of their own territory where such missiles could strike the other’s territory.

4 Limit Military Maneuvers and Activities

  • Limits on heavy bombers and surface warship deployments: Both sides would restrict the operation of heavy bombers and warships in areas from which they could strike targets on the other’s territory. (Note: In September 2020, Trump’s DOD authorized a B-52 to fly along the Ukrainian coast in the Black Sea.)

5 Nuclear Weapons Restrictions

  • All nuclear weapons would be confined to each country’s own national territory. Neither side could deploy nuclear weapons outside its borders. (Note: US just sent a batch of nukes to England.)
  • Withdrawal of all US nuclear weapons from Europe and elimination of existing infrastructure for their deployment abroad.

6 Mutual Security Pledge

  • Each side would agree not to take any security measures that could undermine the core security interests of the other party.

7. Establishment of Consultation Mechanisms

  • Proposals included the renewal or strengthening of direct consultation mechanisms, such as the NATO–Russia Council and the establishment of a crisis hotline.

8 Indivisibility of Security Principle

  • Included a reaffirmation that the security of one state cannot come at the expense of the security of another, formalising Russia’s interpretation of the “indivisible security” concept.

The three questions that supporters of the Ukraine Solidarity Campaign should ask themselves is,

  • which of of these proposals do you disagree with?
  • Would an agreement on these lines be a viable way to end the war?
  • Would an agreement on these lines have avoided it in the first place?